$CF: Strong mid-cycle EBITDA narrative — here’s the historical next-day setup
How CF has reacted before
| Report | Next-day move |
|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | +2.5% |
| Jun 2026 | +0.8% |
| Feb 2026 | +3.8% |
| May 2025 | +0.8% |
| Feb 2025 | -4.2% |
| Oct 2024 | +0.6% |
Median absolute move 1.6% · higher 5 of 6 · n=6
CF Industries Holding, Inc. anticipates strong mid-cycle EBITDA, driven by strategic capacity increases and durable free cash flow despite global supply challenges.
How $CF has reacted to earnings
| Report | Next-day |
|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | +2.5% |
| Jun 2026 | +0.8% |
| Feb 2026 | +3.8% |
| May 2025 | +0.8% |
| Feb 2025 | -4.2% |
| Oct 2024 | +0.6% |
Base rate (n=6):
- Median absolute next-day move: 1.6%
- Higher next day: 5 of 6
- Biggest up day: +3.8%
- Biggest down day: -4.2%